Oscar Jr. Was Here

Saddam Dead Pool Update: April It Is?

The implied probability of an April removal of Saddam is now up to 75 percent. Overall, the speculators' probability of his removal by June has increased to 84 percent.

Meanwhile, via the Taipei Times, Bloomberg reports that markets are looking up in Baghdad, too:

War concerns have sent share prices lower around the world, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 6.8 percent since Jan. 1. Inside the Baghdad stock exchange's two-story concrete building, investors are upbeat.

The benchmark BSI index, which closed at 2,212 on Monday, has gained 31 percent this year, according to data provided by the exchange's research department. The big movers: Baghdad hotels such as the Palestine, the Ishtar and the Sadir. Investors are betting that a quick war, followed by the ouster of President Saddam Hussein, will lead to a surge of visitors and tourists.

and

"There's optimism about a better future," Makhtoum said. "Maybe international companies will return to Iraq someday."

Finally, prospects continue to improve in Kuwait, too:

I hope this evidence will cheer Bill Quick.

Posted by oscarjr at March 6, 2003 11:17 PM | TrackBack