Oscar Jr. Was Here

Demographics and Same-Sex Marriage

I've seen much discussion of late in the context of proposed Federal Marriage Amendments (FMA) positing that a generational shift in attitudes among the young implies greater future acceptance of the notion of same-sex marriage. Examples:

MercuryNews.com:

And as if that weren't enough work ahead, we could well see a campaign in all 50 states to amend the U.S. Constitution to ban same-sex marriage.

Why the big rush? Because a huge generational shift will soon be here, arriving with such irreversible force that the foes of equality can only try to delay the day when gay and straight Americans are treated alike.

According to a Gallup poll conducted on Oct. 24-27, of adults ages 30 and older, 32 percent favor gay marriage. But of those 18 to 29 years old, 53 percent support it.

Matthew Yglesias:

The FMA, under any construal, does neither of these things. Rather, it is an effort to freeze contemporary public opinion into place forever and insulate the status quo from the looming generational shift in attitudes toward sexual orientation.

Glenn Reynolds:

My students, not especially left-leaning as law students go, are largely untroubled by the idea of gay marriage. I think that's a generational shift, and I think it's what the FMA advocates are really worried about.

Tom Maguire:

As to outcome, however, there is a huge generational divide, public opinion is evolving, and time is against the opponents of gay marriage. In such an environment, a constitutional amendment looks like an attempt to draw a line now that gay marriage opponents will not be able to hold in ten or twenty years.

The evidence of this generational shift that I've seen cited generally consists of polling data (or anecdotes) indicating that a higher percentage of young people support same sex marriage than older people. While I'm confident that these data and observations are true, I think those I've cited are misinterpreting these data. More specifically, I find it intuitively unlikely that such beliefs remain sufficiently constant over time to be seen as a demographic shift in favor of same-sex marriage.

Justin Katz has a very interesting post on the same topic citing a New York Times editorial making the same point as those cited above. Katz points us to this useful graph, goes on to discuss the various age groups within the study, and makes two important points along the way:

Either a view of increasing conservatism with age or a gradual change in acceptance of homosexuality would seem to merit a smoother line. To make some sense out of these slopes, we have to consider that there are two ways to consider age-based data: as indicative of historical cultural trends, or as indicative of a single-person's lifeline. Although both are important in all cross-sections, I'd suggest that the significance of the lifeline view fades with age, while the significance of the historical view increases. For one thing, older people have been "formed" and "settled" for longer. For another, younger people are more in the midst, so to speak, of the cultural change, so they'll track more closely to the cultural elite's position on the issue itself.

and

We can't put too much weight on this single poll — or on any polls for that matter. Society is in constant flux. But it seems to me at least plausible that, as this group enters into full adulthood — with all of the experiences and responsibilities that it entails — it will rebound to at least the median line. My own opinion, as a conservative Catholic convert who is still a few years away from the age at which the opposition to gay marriage currently takes off, is that mine will prove to be the most socially conservative generation that the country has seen in many decades.

(Emphasis added.)

My take on the idea of a "generational shift" is somewhat more specific than Katz's: those that view marriage in the abstract, rather than from direct experience, will tend to support policies affecting the institution that others with direct experience oppose. In other words, contra Yglesias, Reynolds, Maguire et. al., I think that, to the extent that the youth of today marry, this "generational shift" will dissipate. Time will tell.

Is there any evidence that the young (or the unmarried, for that matter) were less supportive of same-sex marriage in the past?

To test whether marriage rates are correlated with approval of same-sex marriage, I sought data. I found some polling data here (pdf format) and demographic data here (specifically, Table 4). I've summarized the data in this table:

		Never-	% Never-	% Opposing
Age Group	Total	Married	Married	Amendment
15 to 29	56,811	42,223	74%	58%
30 to 44	64,323	12,003	19%	49%
45 to 64	60,021	4,521	8%	45%
65 & older	32,620	1,270	4%	40%
All	213,773	60,016	28%	48%

(Note: the youngest group considered in the polling data ranges from 18 to 29.)

The data demonstrate a significant correlation between marriage rates and approval of a hypothetical FMA. (New Poll Shows Correlation Is Causation.)

This, of course, may be irrelevant, or it may be a part of the expected change under Katz's lifeline view. (Here's some self-selected anecdotal evidence that people tend to become generally more conservative over the years.)

If my theory is correct, then the increased support for same-sex marriage that actually has occurred (as opposed to that expected to occur due to a hypothesized "generational shift" in the future) may be due to the fact that fewer people are getting married these days:

If any reader knows of a source of historical polls like the one linked above over the last decade or three, I would appreciate a link, comment or an email. Thanks.

Update: On Zonitics, "Edward Boyd" comments, and restates my hypothesis much more clearly than I did:

In other words, it isn't young versus old, it's married versus unmarried -- not quite the sea change people are talking about.

Update: I'm late posting this, but Justin Katz responds here. I am interested in investigating this further, so if anyone knows of sources for the data he mentions, I would appreciate hearing from you. Posted by oscarjr at February 26, 2004 01:24 AM | TrackBack