Oscar Jr. Was Here

العراق للاوراق المالية النشرة الشهرية لش

I think the title of this post translates to "Iraq Stock Exchange, Monthly Bulletin, August 2004."

It is widely accepted that stock prices reflect investors' expectations of the future.

With all the recent Iraq-related despair out there (links provided upon request), including John Kerry's September 6th "quagmire" statement, I decided to see how market participants, with their own money on the line, perceive the future.

I went to the website of the Iraq Stock Exchange. If I've interpreted the data on this page (likely to be replaced in October) correctly, in August, the value of the Iraq Exchange's Industrial Sector increased by 53 percent, the value of the Investment Sector increased by 72 percent, and the value of the Tourism & Hotels Sector, perhaps reflecting current events and Iraq's bad press, decreased by 35 percent. Over the same period, the average listed Iraqi stock appreciated 41 percent in the month of August. My portfolio, having increased by 1.6 percent over the period, is very jealous.

In contrast, the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index increased by 0.4 percent over the same period (an American quagmire!).

While I don't seek to diminish the bad news that is coming out of Iraq, including the last few days' beheadings, the kidnappings; etc., some perspective is in order (see also the wonderful posts by Arthur Chrenkoff). Investors in Iraq do not appear to foresee a "quagmire."

Posted by oscarjr at September 22, 2004 01:01 AM | TrackBack