Doing some additional research on the topic of the post directly below (because at least I find it interesting), I was able to locate a source for state-by-state Department of Defense spending for FY2002. (The data are in this file (Adobe Acrobat format, 1.22 MB). See Table 12, "Federal Government Expenditure for Defense Department and All Other Agencies by State and Outlying Area: Fiscal Year 2002.")
I've also added the data to the revised table below:
Spending
Federal
Tax
Per
Capita
Payout
per Dollar
Liability as
Versus
DoD
Rate Less
of Taxes
a % of AGI
National
Spending
Predicted
State
FY 2002
2002
Average
2002
Rate
Alabama
$1.61
12.1%
Lower
$1,566
$0.14
Alaska
1.82
14.1%
Higher
3,068
0.42
Arizona
1.20
12.8%
Lower
1,577
(0.15)
Arkansas
1.53
11.7%
Lower
621
0.17
California
0.81
14.5%
Higher
1,030
(0.15)
Colorado
0.79
14.1%
Higher
1,164
(0.26)
Connecticut
0.64
17.8%
Higher
1,803
0.10
Delaware
0.85
13.7%
Lower
641
(0.18)
Florida
1.00
14.9%
Higher
854
0.14
Georgia
1.01
13.1%
Lower
1,284
(0.23)
Hawaii
1.52
12.1%
Lower
3,184
(0.25)
Idaho
1.34
11.4%
Lower
449
(0.05)
Illinois
0.77
14.8%
Higher
343
(0.01)
Indiana
0.99
12.5%
Lower
462
(0.21)
Iowa
1.22
11.8%
Lower
311
(0.08)
Kansas
1.14
12.7%
Lower
858
(0.10)
Kentucky
1.46
11.9%
Lower
981
0.05
Louisiana
1.44
12.5%
Lower
716
0.20
Maine
1.31
12.0%
Lower
1,303
(0.13)
Maryland
1.20
13.9%
Lower
1,872
(0.02)
Massachusetts
0.79
15.8%
Higher
911
0.07
Michigan
0.90
13.0%
Lower
312
(0.18)
Minnesota
0.77
13.5%
Lower
393
(0.24)
Mississippi
1.84
11.1%
Lower
1,274
0.25
Missouri
1.32
12.7%
Lower
1,258
0.02
Montana
1.64
11.6%
Lower
504
0.27
Nebraska
1.19
12.4%
Lower
601
(0.06)
Nevada
0.73
14.6%
Higher
572
(0.12)
New Hampshire
0.68
14.4%
Higher
714
(0.23)
New Jersey
0.62
15.9%
Higher
555
(0.00)
New Mexico
1.89
11.7%
Lower
1,030
0.45
New York
0.81
16.0%
Higher
328
0.24
North Carolina
1.07
12.2%
Lower
787
(0.23)
North Dakota
2.03
11.9%
Lower
988
0.64
Ohio
1.02
12.5%
Lower
503
(0.18)
Oklahoma
1.47
12.1%
Lower
1,115
0.07
Oregon
1.00
12.2%
Lower
284
(0.23)
Pennsylvania
1.08
13.5%
Lower
554
0.04
Rhode Island
1.06
13.4%
Lower
856
(0.06)
South Carolina
1.32
11.6%
Lower
917
(0.13)
South Dakota
1.59
13.3%
Lower
619
0.50
Tennessee
1.24
13.3%
Lower
440
0.19
Texas
0.92
14.5%
Higher
1,022
(0.04)
Utah
1.14
11.0%
Lower
1,083
(0.43)
Vermont
1.12
12.7%
Lower
755
(0.10)
Virginia
1.47
14.0%
Higher
4,063
(0.14)
Washington
0.91
14.5%
Higher
1,071
(0.05)
West Virginia
1.74
11.3%
Lower
263
0.38
Wisconsin
0.87
12.6%
Lower
298
(0.29)
Wyoming
1.05
14.6%
Higher
665
0.18
District of Columbia
6.17
16.7%
Higher
6,049
0.00
National
Average
14.0%
$964
Again excluding the District of Columbia, I find that there exists a highly-statistically significant relationship between the both federal tax rate paid for taxpayers in each state and DoD spending and federal spending per dollars of taxes. A 1 percent decrease in the tax rate paid is associated with a 17 cent increase in federal spending per dollar of taxes. Similarly, a $1,000 increase in per capita defense spending is associated with a 18 cent increase in the payout rate. (In addition, I find that D.C. receives about $3.27 more per dollar of tax paid than can be explained by its tax rate and defense expenditures.)
The tax rate and defense spending explain about 91 percent of the variation in the payment per dollar of taxes that the states received.
Once I control for the federal tax rate paid and defense expenditures, one can see how states fare versus how they would be predicted (see last column above). I find that North Dakota now does best, receiving 64 cents more per dollar paid than would be predicted given the tax rate paid by its taxpayers. (Alaska had been higher, but that was due to the relatively high defense spending in the state.) "Red" state Utah now fares worst, receiving 43 cents less per dollar of taxes than would be predicted. On average, the "red" states received 6 cents more per dollar in taxes paid than would be predicted, while the "blue" states received 8 cents less (before controlling for demographics; etc.).
Posted by oscarjr at November 11, 2004 09:47 AM
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